Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
