Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
